Official – Alarmist warnings of 2m sea level rises are wrong – Met Office Study

Alarmist Doomsday warning of rising seas ‘was wrong’, says a Met Office study – Daily Mail (6 December 2010) (Telegraph & Guardian)

Last year around the time of the Copenhagen Cop 15 climate conference, the public were bombarded on television and in the newspapers with alarmist messages of projected sea level rises due to man made climate change, of 2 metres  or even higher (4 metres by some lobby groups). Whilst the IPCC 2007 AR4 report only had a worst case scenario of 59 cm, the 2m announcements were no doubt made to persude politicians and policy makers of the urgency of signing a new agreement. 

A year later, whilst the Cancun Cop 16 climate conference is underway, does the good news that these alarmist sea level predictions were wrong make similar headlines?  No, it was buried away on pg 19, with maybe half a column of coverage.

Alarming predictions that global warming [man made presumably] could cause sea levels to rise 6ft in the next century are wrong, it has emerged.”    

“However, the report says the IPCC was right to warn of a sea level rise of up to 2ft by 2100, and that a 3ft rise could happen”.

Do you notice that the Met Office study says up to 2 feet, and that 3 feet could happen and little emphasis on most likely and least scenarios.

However, the most likely scenario based on observed sea level rises, might indicate the lower end of IPCC predictions – 1ft – which is totally within the realm of a natural rise in sea levels since the last ice-age.
 
Of course, if you are the Met office, at a time when the UK is in a massive deficit, you might need to try to justify your existance and research  and perhaps decide to emphasise the negative.  If 1 ft is the most likely scenario (which is in the realms of natural sea level rises since the last ice age), might the UK Coalition Government ask:

Why do we need to fund you this ‘research’ ?

especially as the Met  Office were predicting a mild winter for the UK as recently as October 2010, when all other forecasters were predicting an exceptionally cold winter (cold temperature records now being broken across Europe)
 
After the media fest that was Coppenhage, I complained to the BBC about the uncritical reporting of 6ft sea level rises (IPCC said 59cm) uncritical coverage of the COP 15 video, showing a tidal wave engulfing a small child. (2 minutes 20 )

I had this response from Richard Black BBC – (complaint email – attached, which did not cover my exact complaint, cop 15 tidal wave engulfing child video, the BBC uncritically showed it)

Dear Mr Woods,
 
Thanks for your email.
 
Yes, the IPCC said a maximum sea level rise of 59cm. But it also said it
was unable to include a contribution from accelerated ice sheet melting
as modelling was not yet advanced enough – so the 59cm was an
underestimate.

Best wishes,
Richard Black

In light of this Met Office study, and the fact that the IPCC AR4 report said 59cm was a worst case scenario, and it was only pre Copenhagen Cop 15 conference that the 6 feet (2m) alarmist figures for sea level rises get mentioned.

I might ask the BBC to be a bit more critical next time, as it would appear to have been unsubstantiated, non peer review ‘alarmism’ designed to encourage the policy makers to sign agreements at Copenhagen. I would suggest that the BBC and MSM investigate any similar claims in the future, with questions like:

Who exactly said 6ft, on what authority was it said, and what evidence is there?

Also, is then any conflicting evidence or papers on sea level rises?

Questions that might be expected of an organisation like the BBC, faced with PR announcements from a political conference (Cop 15). It seems reasonable to perceive that the ‘alarmist’ 2m sea level rises were announced to encourage policy makers at Copenhagen, with no basis in reality.

A similar iconic IPCC (2007) message was that the North Atlantic Gulf Stream was shutting down due to Man Made Global Warming, this ‘fact’ is repeatably used ny a number of environemntal lobby groups to this day.

“In 2007 the IPCC reported preliminary evidence that the Atlantic conveyor belt that brings warm water north and keeps Britain relatively mild for its latitude during winters was breaking down” – Mail on Sunday

The article describes how the Met Office study, which is revisting the science in IPCC 2007 AR4 Report, – rules out – the North Atlantic gulf stream shutting down (Day After Tommorow doomsday scenarios) This was reported  by the BBC earlier this year (quietly), what took the Met Office so long to report this.

BBC: Gulf Stream Not Slowing Down – Richard Black, March 2010

This year at Cancun – Cop 16, there have been announcements and articles about + 4.0C of AGW by 2060.  No doubt the same sort of ‘alarmism’ to encourage the policy makers at Cancun to sign something.
 
I take those announcements in the same vein as the previous pre Cop 15 Copenhagen conference annoucementts of, ‘it is worse that we thought’,  2 metre sea level rise alarmism…

 

Background Complaint to the BBC: Copenhagen Climate change – Scaremongering despite the science
 
{Complaint:} Run up to Copenhagen Climate conference:
 
There were numerous articles, clips promoting doom gloom and catastophe.
[Cop 15 OPenning Conference Video – The sea rushing in was used repeatably by all the MSM]
 
Enough to scare my 5 year old daughter, with clips of children running away  from sea level rises…(tidal waves)
 
Yet: this was a factual program. Should it not report the facts/science. The IPCC say WORST case 59cm in sea level rise by 2100…
 
So even if you believe in the AGW theory (I do not) the climate change prediction of sea level rising at a rate of 0.0006m a year.
It does not warrant this appaling level of  scaremongering and to be honest ‘propaganda’ perpetuated by the BBC…
 
I though the BBC was supposed to be impartial. The science as I’m sure you are aware now is anything but settled.. 
 
Just ask an astrophysicist vs a ‘climate scientist’. ie predictions of cold winters, and cooling for the next 20-30 years coming true:
 
End of BBC complaint
     

ie Oct 9, 2009
BBC – What happened to global warming? –   Paul Hudson – Climate correspondent, BBC News
 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8299079.stm
 
He was even mentioned in the climategate scandal email (how about doing
some  proper investigative journalism in the worlds first global
scandal)
     

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Official – Alarmist warnings of 2m sea level rises are wrong – Met Office Study

  1. Mark says:

    The greater sea level rise estimates usually come from attempts to constrain ice sheet breakup (which isn’t properly included in models – read the IPCC report, it says this clearly) using geological evidence.

    Vermeer and Rahmstorf results here:
    http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/vermeer_rahmstorf_2009.pdf

    Other papers using a variety of methods agree on the range:
    http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Nature/rahmstorf_science_2007.pdf
    http://europa.agu.org/?view=article&uri=/journals/gl/gl0802/2007GL032486/2007GL032486.xml
    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/321/5894/1340
    http://www.springerlink.com/content/527178062596k202/

    You haven’t provided a reference to the actual report, so I can’t comment further. The figures given by you for the new Met Office report are overlapping but slightly higher than the 2007 IPCC report and lower than geological estimates. My guess is that they are still based on modelling results.

  2. Thank you for the sensible critique. Me and my neighbor were just preparing to do some research on this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more from this post. I am very glad to see such excellent info being shared freely out there.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s